Economic snapshot · Data through Jul 2026

Economic impacts on Austin & San Antonio mechanical & sheet metal contractors

A curated view of the indicators that shape the operating environment for MCA-SMACNA of Austin and MCA-SMACNA of San Antonio contractors — input costs, housing demand, labor markets, and interest rates, side by side across both metros.

Static snapshot as of Jul 26, 2026. All series drawn from FRED, BLS, Census, FHFA, and Freddie Mac.

Overview

The eight numbers that describe today

Contractor operating environment across Austin and San Antonio — input costs on the left, financing and demand on the right.

Overview KPI grid showing input costs, mortgage rates, permits, and specialty trade employment for Austin and San Antonio — **What to notice:** Steel PPI +16.9% YoY and copper +37.8% are the dominant cost stories. Austin specialty trade employment (59.3K, +10.2% YoY) is booming; San Antonio (41.5K) is flat. Both metros absorbing the same material pressure.

See Austin-only and San Antonio-only views

Overview filtered to Austin only — Austin only

Overview filtered to San Antonio only — San Antonio only

Input costs

Sheet metal & HVAC materials

Section 232 tariff regimes have been the dominant input-cost story since 2018. Steel and copper diverged from HVAC equipment pass-through — the margin-squeeze indicator.

Input cost trends: steel and aluminum PPI vs global commodities — **What to notice:** Steel mill products at 361.4 (index, 1982=100). Copper at $13,552/mt. HVAC equipment PPI only up 7.9% — well below raw material inflation, indicating manufacturers are absorbing rather than fully passing through.

Construction & housing

Demand engines: permits & home prices

MSA-level residential permits and house price indices — the leading indicators for future project pipelines. Austin and San Antonio tell different stories.

Housing permits and HPI comparison for Austin and San Antonio — **What to notice:** Austin permits at 1,539 units (–14.2% YoY) cooling faster than Texas overall (–11.6%). San Antonio at 1,168, steadier. Austin HPI slightly negative; San Antonio HPI +1.4%.

See Austin-only and San Antonio-only views

Housing section filtered to Austin only — Austin only

Housing section filtered to San Antonio only — San Antonio only

Labor market

Workforce & wages

Specialty trade contractor employment (HVAC, sheet metal, plumbing) is the tightest available proxy for MCA-SMACNA member headcount. Unemployment and construction wages set the bargaining baseline.

Labor market: specialty trade employment and unemployment for Austin, San Antonio, and Texas — **What to notice:** Austin specialty trades climbed from ~45K to 59.3K over five years. San Antonio flat at ~40K. Austin unemployment 3.5%, San Antonio 4.1%, Texas 4.4% — Austin runs consistently tighter.

See Austin-only and San Antonio-only views

Labor market filtered to Austin only — Austin only

Labor market filtered to San Antonio only — San Antonio only

Macro & rates

Rates & inflation

Rates shape financing for new commercial builds and rate-sensitive residential demand. The full rate stack driving construction financing.

Fed funds rate, 10-year Treasury, and 30-year mortgage rates — **What to notice:** Fed funds at 3.63%, 10-year Treasury 4.71%, 30-year mortgage 6.58% (–2.1% YoY). Rate cuts are starting to flow through to mortgages, but financing costs remain well above pre-2022 levels.

Impact model

Sensitivity ranking

A stylized exposure model: how a 10% move in each indicator hits a typical MCA-SMACNA contractor's operating margin. Assumptions are documented — the interactive dashboard lets you adjust weights.

Data & methodology

Series & sources

Input costs: BLS PPI series for steel, aluminum, copper, and HVAC equipment
Housing permits: Census Building Permits Survey, Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown and San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA
House prices: FHFA All-Transactions HPI, MSA-level
Labor: BLS QCEW / Current Employment Statistics, specialty trade contractors NAICS 238
Rates: Federal Reserve H.15, Freddie Mac PMMS

Coverage

Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown MSA (~2.5M residents)
San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA (~2.7M residents)
Texas statewide series for context
National input-cost and rate series

Impact model assumptions

60% residential / 40% commercial revenue mix (default)
65% material cost pass-through in typical bidding cycle
28% steel share of COGS, 14% copper/aluminum, 32% labor share of revenue
90-day price-locked backlog assumption